COP29: 5 Critical Developments To Watch At This Year’s Climate Summit

The world’s biggest annual climate conference has kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan. This year alone we’ve witnessed record flooding in Spain, intensifying heatwaves, and the continued advance toward the1.5°C warming threshold. Climate impacts are no longer distant concerns—they are current crises. Compounding this urgency is the potential fallout from the recent U.S. election, which could slow global progress on decarbonization. COP29, therefore, stands as one of the most consequential climate conferences to date.

Here is your guide to five critical areas to watch as countries come together to advance—and, hopefully, accelerate—global climate efforts.

1. Deciding Each Nation’s Contributions: Laying The Groundwork For COP30

At COP29, a primary focus will be setting the stage for countries to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions ahead of COP30.Set and updated every five years, the NDCs are pivotal, as they represent each country’s voluntary commitments to reduce emissions. With the current trajectory indicating that global temperatures could exceed 1.5°C by the early2030s, nations will be under pressure to present far more ambitious plans.

Many countries are falling short of their initial targets. For instance, according to the World Resources Institute, current commitments put the world on a path to approximately 2.4°C of warming—a dangerous scenario for ecosystems and communities alike. COP29 presents a stage for nations to begin to act by raising their commitments and making their decarbonization plans clearer.

2. Updating the New Collective Quantified Goal On Climate Finance

Another central agenda item at COP29 is redefining the New Collective Quantified Goal for climate finance, a goal that is overdue for expansion. For over a decade, developed countries have pledged $100 Billion annually to help developing nations mitigate and adapt to climate impacts. Yet, this funding has often fallen short of expectations. The actual need is far greater. COP29 provides a critical opportunity to rethink and expand the NCQG to meet real-world needs, including support for adaptation and resilience in vulnerable nations.

Moreover, the finance landscape is shifting as developing nations continue to grow their economies and their emissions. COP29 will also focus on building mechanisms that ensure a transparent, equitable distribution of climate funds. A re-evaluation of climate finance is essential, both to meet the expanding need and to maintain trust between developed and developing countries.

3. Carbon Markets: Refining Article 6 Of The ParisClimate Agreement

Carbon markets represent one of the more contentious, yet potentially transformative, mechanisms for climate action. Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, countries can trade carbon credits to offset emissions, driving emissions reductions in a cost-effective manner. However, disagreements over the parameters and transparency of carbon trading have slowed progress, and the system lacks standardized rules, which can lead to market manipulation and ineffective reductions.

COP29 is expected to build on the carbon market groundwork laid in prior COPs, aiming for a regulatory framework that ensures real, measurable emissions cuts. The International Institute for Sustainable Development explains that clearer guidelines are essential for a functional and fair carbon market. Progress on Article 6 could catalyze billions in investments for low-carbon projects globally. This COP will be a decisive moment for determining how carbon markets can become a reliable tool for financing climate action or whether they will remain mired in regulatory uncertainty.

4. Operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund

One of the most significant recent achievements at COP was the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund in 2022, a historic move to address the needs of countries most affected by climate impacts. However, establishing the fund was only the first step. Now, delegates at COP29 must focus on operationalizing it to deliver timely support to nations on the front lines of climate disasters.

In communicating priorities for COP29, the United Nations outlined the importance of ensuring that vulnerable countries have access to resources without bureaucratic delays. Climate-driven economic losses are estimated in the hundreds of billions annually, and without improved climate funding, vulnerable countries face extreme financial strain. This year’s discussions will center on setting up the fund’s governance structure, mobilizing resources, and scaling up the fund to close the gap between current pledges and actual needs. Progress on adaptation and loss-and-damage would bring life-changing support for millions of people worldwide, providing an essential safety net as climate impacts intensify.

5. Biodiversity And Climate: Integrating Nature-Based Solutions

The intersection of climate action and biodiversity conservation is gaining traction as a crucial area for sustainable development. Nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, wetland restoration, and coastal protection, offer powerful means of mitigating climate impacts while preserving ecosystems. Yet, these solutions require integration within broader climate policies, and they need funding to scale effectively. COP29 will likely see a stronger emphasis on nature-positive initiatives, which not only support carbon sequestration but also enhance resilience against climate impacts like floods and droughts.

As noted by the World Economic Forum, protecting nature is essential for sustaining the world’s Carbon sinks, including forests, which currently absorb about 7.6 Billion metric tons of CO₂ each year. Recognizing and scaling nature-based solutions would play a role in closing the emissions gap and offer numerous co-benefits for ecosystems and biodiversity.

Driving Climate Progress

COP29 is a critical opportunity for countries to act decisively in the face of accelerating climate impacts. It is one of the last chances left to limit warming below potentially catastrophic levels. From ramping up national commitments to refining the structure of carbon markets, there is much work to be done.

For developed nations, fulfilling and expanding their climate finance commitments is a matter of trust and equity. For vulnerable countries, establishing a functional Loss and Damage Fund is a matter of survival. The decisions made in Baku over the next two weeks could well determine our collective climate future. With a narrowing window to act, the world is watching closely—and expecting action.

This article first appeared in Forbes.